Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Северная Америка. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
TiltedBoyswin 2:1series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:1
0021loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
TiltedBoys
Doomoften banned
Ezekiel · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
Beastmasteroften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
Broodmotheroften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
Marsoften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
Primal Beastoften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
Underlordoften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
021
Abaddonoften banned
Ark · 3 games
Snapfire
Steelborco · 3 games
Hoodwink
Steelborco · 2 games
Clockwerk
Steelborco · 1 game
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Ark · 1 game
Sniperoften banned
Ark · 1 game
Terrorbladeoften banned
Ark · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
790 picks · 545 bans
Tiny
569 picks · 397 bans
Treant Protector
527 picks · 569 bans
Tusk
523 picks · 436 bans
Nature's Prophet
446 picks · 726 bans
Death Prophet
416 picks · 807 bans
Snapfire
406 picks · 293 bans
Ember Spirit
364 picks · 850 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 56%
Hero pool strength51% TiltedBoys
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% TiltedBoys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:13
TiltedBoys 61%021 39%
The model gave 61% on TiltedBoys — the game was taken by TiltedBoys in 45:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BeastmasterEzekiel
Drow RangerArk
49% · 98 games
TuskSteelborco
Game 2prediction missed10:23
TiltedBoys 61%021 39%
The model gave 61% on TiltedBoys — the game was taken by 021 in 32:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BeastmasterEzekiel
Troll WarlordArk
43% · 86 games
ClockwerkSteelborco
Game 3prediction correct40:34
TiltedBoys 60%021 40%
The model gave 60% on TiltedBoys — the game was taken by TiltedBoys in 56:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Centaur WarrunnerEzekiel
Nature's ProphetArk
48% · 21 game
ClockwerkSteelborco
Model check result
Model favoriteTiltedBoys · 67%
Series resultTiltedBoys 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3