Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Северная Америка. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionVAVillain Arcloss 0:1
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 0:1
JMJedi Mind Trickswin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Villain Arc
Kunkkaoften banned
Zore · 1 game
Primal Beastoften banned
Zore · 1 game
Jedi Mind Tricks
Hoodwink
lukiluki · 4 games
Disruptor
Sonic · 3 games
Tiny
Sonic · 2 games
Clinkz
Shoe · 1 game
Death Prophetoften banned
Shoe · 1 game
Gyrocopter
Shoe · 1 game
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Sonic · 1 game
Primal Beastoften banned
lukiluki · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
790 picks · 545 bans
Tiny
569 picks · 398 bans
Treant Protector
527 picks · 569 bans
Tusk
523 picks · 439 bans
Nature's Prophet
443 picks · 724 bans
Death Prophet
412 picks · 800 bans
Snapfire
406 picks · 295 bans
Ember Spirit
363 picks · 853 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 50%
Hero pool strength60% Jedi Mind Tricks
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total55% Villain Arc
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Villain Arc 55%Jedi Mind Tricks 45%
The model gave 55% on Villain Arc — the game was taken by Jedi Mind Tricks.
Model check result
Model favoriteVillain Arc · 55%
Series resultJedi Mind Tricks 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1