Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Западная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:0series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Entityloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
Miranasignature
Sneyking · 21 game
Tinysignature
Saksa · 20 games
Doomsignature
33 · 19 games
Chaos Knightsignature
Skiter · 18 games
Undyingsignature
Sneyking · 17 games
Tusksignature
Nine · 16 games
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 15 games
Enigmasignature
33 · 14 games
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
790 picks · 545 bans
Tiny
569 picks · 398 bans
Treant Protector
527 picks · 569 bans
Tusk
523 picks · 439 bans
Nature's Prophet
443 picks · 724 bans
Death Prophet
412 picks · 800 bans
Snapfire
406 picks · 295 bans
Ember Spirit
363 picks · 853 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 51%
Hero pool strength60% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head3 – 3
Model total58% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct46:14
Tundra Esports 58%Entity 42%
The model gave 58% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 32:42.
Game 2prediction correct33:14
Tundra Esports 58%Entity 42%
The model gave 58% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 34:30.
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 58%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2