Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Северная Америка. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Sand King Gomezwin 2:1series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 2:1
goonsloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Sand King Gomez
No games played over 6 months.
goons
Pangolieroften banned
Boris · 2 games
Disruptor
AfrOmoush · 1 game
Nyx Assassinoften banned
AfrOmoush · 1 game
Puckoften banned
Boris · 1 game
Spirit Breaker
AfrOmoush · 1 game
Storm Spiritoften banned
Boris · 1 game
Tusk
AfrOmoush · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
790 picks · 545 bans
Tiny
569 picks · 398 bans
Treant Protector
527 picks · 569 bans
Tusk
523 picks · 439 bans
Nature's Prophet
443 picks · 724 bans
Death Prophet
412 picks · 800 bans
Snapfire
406 picks · 295 bans
Ember Spirit
363 picks · 853 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 63%
Hero pool strength55% goons
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% goons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Sand King Gomez 36%goons 64%
The model gave 64% on goons — the game was taken by goons.
Game 2prediction missed
Sand King Gomez 36%goons 64%
The model gave 64% on goons — the game was taken by Sand King Gomez.
Game 3prediction missed
Sand King Gomez 36%goons 64%
The model gave 64% on goons — the game was taken by Sand King Gomez.
Model check result
Model favoritegoons · 64%
Series resultSand King Gomez 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3