Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Западная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Monaspaloss 1:2series probability
16%84%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Monaspa
No games played over 6 months.
Gaimin Gladiators
Rubicksignature
tOfu · 25 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Ace · 20 games
Leshracsignature
Quinn · 17 games
Linasignature
dyrachyo · 15 games
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 15 games
Treant Protectorsignature
Seleri · 15 games
Crystal Maiden
Seleri · 14 games
Hoodwink
tOfu · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
784 picks · 542 bans
Tiny
565 picks · 399 bans
Treant Protector
528 picks · 569 bans
Tusk
524 picks · 440 bans
Nature's Prophet
439 picks · 718 bans
Death Prophet
409 picks · 791 bans
Snapfire
401 picks · 292 bans
Ember Spirit
362 picks · 846 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 65%
Hero pool strength60% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total84% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:41
Monaspa 16%Gaimin Gladiators 84%
The model gave 84% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 1:02:49.
Game 2prediction correct18:31
Monaspa 16%Gaimin Gladiators 84%
The model gave 84% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 33:13.
Game 3prediction correct43:20
Monaspa 16%Gaimin Gladiators 84%
The model gave 84% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 39:25.
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 84%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3