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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Западная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:1
series probability
89%11%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Nigma Galaxyloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Tusk
Tusksignature
Boxi · 30 games
73%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
iNSaNiA · 19 games
74%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
zai · 18 games
83%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Boxi · 18 games
61%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
iNSaNiA · 17 games
76%
Undying
Undyingsignature
iNSaNiA · 17 games
76%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
miCKe · 15 games
80%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
miCKe · 14 games
64%

Nigma Galaxy

Tusk
Tusk
GH · 7 games
29%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 6 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
GH · 6 games
17%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
SumaiL · 5 games
60%
Razor
Razoroften banned
ATF · 5 games
80%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
SumaiL · 4 games
25%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
SumaiL · 4 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ATF · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
786 picks · 540 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
563 picks · 397 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
528 picks · 437 bans
48%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
525 picks · 572 bans
56%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
438 picks · 714 bans
56%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
406 picks · 791 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
402 picks · 293 bans
45%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
364 picks · 845 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 27%
Hero pool strength65% Team Liquid
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total89% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:44
Team Liquid 77%Nigma Galaxy 23%
The model gave 77% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 57:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangermiCKe
50% · 114 games48% · 290 games
Templar AssassinSumaiL
Templar Assassin
Puck
PuckNisha
52% · 277 games47% · 190 games
TimbersawATF
Timbersaw
Snapfire
Snapfirezai
47% · 375 games50% · 489 games
Death ProphetMinD_ContRoL
Death Prophet
Tiny
TinyBoxi
50% · 661 game58% · 222 games
DisruptorGH
Disruptor
Undying
UndyingiNSaNiA
50% · 250 games46% · 486 games
ClockwerkKuroKy
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct32:8
Team Liquid 76%Nigma Galaxy 24%
The model gave 76% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 31:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperNisha
49% · 48 games52% · 100 games
LunaSumaiL
Luna
Razor
RazormiCKe
56% · 80 games51% · 268 games
EnigmaMinD_ContRoL
Enigma
Snapfire
Snapfirezai
47% · 168 games54% · 30 games
HuskarATF
Huskar
Tiny
TinyBoxi
46% · 286 games44% · 105 games
AlchemistKuroKy
Alchemist
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectoriNSaNiA
50% · 115 games52% · 194 games
DisruptorGH
Disruptor
Game 3prediction correct26:7
Team Liquid 76%Nigma Galaxy 24%
The model gave 76% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 33:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingmiCKe
50% · 171 game51% · 242 games
TerrorbladeSumaiL
Terrorblade
Death Prophet
Death ProphetNisha
47% · 416 games55% · 237 games
Nature's ProphetMinD_ContRoL
Nature's Prophet
Tidehunter
Tidehunterzai
53% · 93 games55% · 193 games
Dragon KnightATF
Dragon Knight
Disruptor
DisruptoriNSaNiA
46% · 158 games50% · 155 games
PhoenixGH
Phoenix
Hoodwink
HoodwinkBoxi
40% · 262 games52% · 273 games
ClockwerkKuroKy
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 89%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3