?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. ЮВА. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Talon Esportswin 2:0
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Polaris Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Talon Esports

Tusk
Tusksignature
Q · 28 games
61%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Q · 18 games
61%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Q · 17 games
76%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Mikoto · 16 games
81%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Oli · 15 games
73%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Jabz · 13 games
85%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 13 games
77%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Oli · 13 games
54%

Polaris Esports

Lich
Lichsignature
cml · 15 games
73%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Bok · 13 games
77%
Marci
Marci
Jing · 11 games
55%
Riki
Rikisignature
Jing · 10 games
90%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Bok · 10 games
80%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
cml · 9 games
67%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Bok · 9 games
56%
Lina
Linasignature
Mac · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
787 picks · 537 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
563 picks · 402 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
534 picks · 439 bans
48%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
527 picks · 574 bans
56%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
436 picks · 712 bans
56%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
405 picks · 792 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
404 picks · 293 bans
45%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
366 picks · 840 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 63%
Hero pool strength52% Talon Esports
Head-to-head5 – 0
Model total76% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct49:14
Talon Esports 66%Polaris Esports 34%
The model gave 66% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 52:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
Slark23savage
52% · 111 games46% · 132 games
TerrorbladeAkashi
Terrorblade
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMikoto
62% · 214 games47% · 329 games
PangolierMac
Pangolier
Broodmother
BroodmotherJabz
55% · 173 games47% · 171 game
Keeper of the Lightcml
Keeper of the Light
Hoodwink
HoodwinkQ
47% · 324 games38% · 63 games
Legion CommanderBok
Legion Commander
Undying
UndyingOli
57% · 249 games47% · 376 games
RubickBoomy
Rubick
Game 2prediction correct44:18
Talon Esports 65%Polaris Esports 35%
The model gave 65% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 42:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphling23savage
53% · 155 games56% · 38 games
Anti-MageAkashi
Anti-Mage
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetJabz
60% · 210 games48% · 522 games
TuskMac
Tusk
Zeus
ZeusMikoto
50% · 130 games49% · 205 games
Keeper of the LightBok
Keeper of the Light
Tiny
TinyQ
49% · 659 games45% · 299 games
HoodwinkBoomy
Hoodwink
Phoenix
PhoenixOli
48% · 130 games46% · 220 games
Terrorbladecml
Terrorblade
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 76%
Series resultTalon Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2