Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Восточная Европа. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
BAZA Esportswin 1:0series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:0
qualifiers enjoyersloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BAZA Esports
Rubick
weebian · 2 games
Enigmaoften banned
Mastery · 1 game
Marsoften banned
Mastery · 1 game
Tusk
weebian · 1 game
Visageoften banned
Mastery · 1 game
qualifiers enjoyers
Anti-Mageoften banned
WoE · 1 game
Phantom Lanceroften banned
WoE · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
787 picks · 537 bans
Tiny
563 picks · 403 bans
Tusk
536 picks · 439 bans
Treant Protector
528 picks · 575 bans
Nature's Prophet
437 picks · 713 bans
Death Prophet
406 picks · 793 bans
Snapfire
404 picks · 294 bans
Ember Spirit
366 picks · 840 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 56%
Hero pool strength56% BAZA Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% BAZA Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
BAZA Esports 50%qualifiers enjoyers 50%
The model gave 50% on BAZA Esports — the game was taken by BAZA Esports.
Model check result
Model favoriteBAZA Esports · 50%
Series resultBAZA Esports 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1