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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. ЮВА. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
UD Vessuwanloss 1:2
series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Toughwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

UD Vessuwan

Rubick
Rubick
boombell · 9 games
33%
Snapfire
Snapfire
LionaX · 9 games
22%
Tiny
Tiny
Beebie · 8 games
38%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
LionaX · 8 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
boombell · 7 games
0%
Mirana
Mirana
boombell · 6 games
33%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Beebie · 6 games
17%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Beebie · 5 games
40%

Team Tough

Doom
Doomoften banned
seimei · 2 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
seimei · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
789 picks · 536 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
563 picks · 401 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
537 picks · 440 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
529 picks · 576 bans
56%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
435 picks · 712 bans
56%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
404 picks · 793 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
404 picks · 294 bans
45%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
366 picks · 838 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 75%
Hero pool strength59% Team Tough
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% Team Tough
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:28
UD Vessuwan 38%Team Tough 62%
The model gave 62% on Team Tough — the game was taken by Team Tough in 42:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetKNP
55% · 106 games47% · 331 game
Death Prophetseimei
Death Prophet
Primal Beast
Primal BeastBeebie
58% · 46 games
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkboombell
41% · 89 games
Undying
UndyingLionaX
60% · 90 games
Game 2prediction missed42:27
UD Vessuwan 37%Team Tough 63%
The model gave 63% on Team Tough — the game was taken by UD Vessuwan in 48:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetKNP
55% · 106 games51% · 321 game
Death Prophetseimei
Death Prophet
Zeus
ZeusBeebie
40% · 36 games
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkboombell
41% · 89 games
Undying
UndyingLionaX
60% · 90 games
Game 3prediction correct16:22
UD Vessuwan 38%Team Tough 62%
The model gave 62% on Team Tough — the game was taken by Team Tough in 33:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenKNP
32% · 15 games53% · 91 game
Viperseimei
Viper
Death Prophet
Death ProphetBeebie
49% · 35 games
Monkey King
Monkey Kingboombell
52% · 29 games
Disruptor
DisruptorLionaX
56% · 12 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tough · 73%
Series resultTeam Tough 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3