Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Китай. Закрытые отборочные · BO1
result vs prediction
Holy Grailwin 1:0series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Nnuoyanloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Holy Grail
Ember Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 4 games
Death Prophetoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 2 games
Rubick
omoxiloyi · 2 games
Snapfire
omoxiloyi · 2 games
Underlordoften banned
Tzy · 2 games
Mirana
omoxiloyi · 1 game
Nyx Assassinoften banned
omoxiloyi · 1 game
Pangolieroften banned
Tzy · 1 game
nuoyan
Crystal Maiden
谢乐zzz张泽中 · 3 games
Mirana
谢乐zzz张泽中 · 3 games
Abaddonoften banned
谢乐zzz张泽中 · 1 game
Rubick
谢乐zzz张泽中 · 1 game
Snapfire
谢乐zzz张泽中 · 1 game
Sven
谢乐zzz张泽中 · 1 game
Undyingoften banned
谢乐zzz张泽中 · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
788 picks · 535 bans
Tiny
563 picks · 401 bans
Tusk
534 picks · 440 bans
Treant Protector
529 picks · 575 bans
Nature's Prophet
434 picks · 711 bans
Snapfire
403 picks · 294 bans
Death Prophet
402 picks · 793 bans
Ember Spirit
366 picks · 836 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% nuoyan
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total50% Holy Grail
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:13
Holy Grail 52%nuoyan 48%
The model gave 52% on Holy Grail — the game was taken by Holy Grail in 38:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Death ProphetButterflyEffect
Lich谢乐zzz张泽中
BeastmasterTzy
Tuskomoxiloyi
Model check result
Model favoriteHoly Grail · 50%
Series resultHoly Grail 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1