Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Китай. Закрытые отборочные · BO1
result vs predictionNnuoyanloss 0:1
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 0:1
孤孤独摇滚win 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
nuoyan
Crystal Maiden
谢乐zzz张泽中 · 3 games
Mirana
谢乐zzz张泽中 · 2 games
Abaddonoften banned
谢乐zzz张泽中 · 1 game
Rubick
谢乐zzz张泽中 · 1 game
Snapfire
谢乐zzz张泽中 · 1 game
Sven
谢乐zzz张泽中 · 1 game
Undyingoften banned
谢乐zzz张泽中 · 1 game
孤独摇滚
Beastmasteroften banned
strawberry · 1 game
Dawnbreakeroften banned
strawberry · 1 game
Death Prophetoften banned
strawberry · 1 game
Marsoften banned
strawberry · 1 game
Nature's Prophetoften banned
strawberry · 1 game
Primal Beastoften banned
strawberry · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
788 picks · 535 bans
Tiny
563 picks · 399 bans
Tusk
534 picks · 438 bans
Treant Protector
530 picks · 576 bans
Nature's Prophet
433 picks · 708 bans
Snapfire
402 picks · 294 bans
Death Prophet
401 picks · 795 bans
Ember Spirit
368 picks · 833 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 56%
Hero pool strength50% nuoyan
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total51% nuoyan
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed8:17
nuoyan 51%孤独摇滚 49%
The model gave 51% on nuoyan — the game was taken by 孤独摇滚 in 21:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Mirana谢乐zzz张泽中
Beastmasterstrawberry
Model check result
Model favoritenuoyan · 51%
Series result孤独摇滚 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1