Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Китай. Закрытые отборочные · BO1
result vs prediction
Holy Grailloss 0:1series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 0:1
孤孤独摇滚win 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Holy Grail
Ember Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 3 games
Death Prophetoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 2 games
Rubick
omoxiloyi · 2 games
Mirana
omoxiloyi · 1 game
Nyx Assassinoften banned
omoxiloyi · 1 game
Pangolieroften banned
Tzy · 1 game
Shadow Fiendoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 1 game
Slardaroften banned
Tzy · 1 game
孤独摇滚
Beastmasteroften banned
strawberry · 1 game
Death Prophetoften banned
strawberry · 1 game
Marsoften banned
strawberry · 1 game
Nature's Prophetoften banned
strawberry · 1 game
Primal Beastoften banned
strawberry · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
789 picks · 536 bans
Tiny
564 picks · 401 bans
Tusk
534 picks · 440 bans
Treant Protector
530 picks · 575 bans
Nature's Prophet
433 picks · 709 bans
Death Prophet
401 picks · 793 bans
Snapfire
401 picks · 297 bans
Ember Spirit
367 picks · 830 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% 孤独摇滚
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total57% Holy Grail
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed7:21
Holy Grail 54%孤独摇滚 46%
The model gave 54% on Holy Grail — the game was taken by 孤独摇滚 in 15:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UnderlordTzy
Dawnbreakerstrawberry
Ember SpiritButterflyEffect
Snapfireomoxiloyi
Model check result
Model favoriteHoly Grail · 57%
Series result孤独摇滚 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1