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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Северная Америка. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
TiltedBoyswin 2:0
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Villain Arcloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TiltedBoys

Doom
Doomoften banned
Ezekiel · 2 games
100%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
0%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
0%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
100%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
0%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
0%

Villain Arc

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
790 picks · 536 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
563 picks · 401 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
535 picks · 439 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
530 picks · 575 bans
56%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
432 picks · 708 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
402 picks · 297 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
401 picks · 788 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
368 picks · 831 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 71%
Hero pool strength50% TiltedBoys
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% TiltedBoys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:19
TiltedBoys 54%Villain Arc 46%
The model gave 54% on TiltedBoys — the game was taken by TiltedBoys in 43:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterEzekiel
49% · 41 game51% · 41 game
Primal BeastZore
Primal Beast
Game 2prediction correct39:33
TiltedBoys 55%Villain Arc 45%
The model gave 55% on TiltedBoys — the game was taken by TiltedBoys in 55:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerEzekiel
53% · 11 games47% · 11 games
KunkkaZore
Kunkka
Model check result
Model favoriteTiltedBoys · 56%
Series resultTiltedBoys 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2