European Pro League Season 36 · BO3
result vs prediction
Inner Circlewin 2:1series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:1
MODUSloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Inner Circle
Warlock
Se · 22 games
Tusk
Fernans · 20 games
Hoodwink
Fernans · 19 games
Tiny
Jing · 19 games
Jakirooften banned
Se · 18 games
Puckoften banned
niche · 17 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
423 · 15 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
niche · 15 games
MODUS
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 3 games
Beastmasteroften banned
bottega · 2 games
Muerta
bottega · 2 games
Rubick
mrls · 2 games
Void Spirit
Mirele · 2 games
Alchemistoften banned
bottega · 1 game
Bristlebackoften banned
elmo^^ · 1 game
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
elmo^^ · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
638 picks · 640 bans
Tiny
508 picks · 426 bans
Tusk
483 picks · 409 bans
Phoenix
436 picks · 442 bans
Warlock
427 picks · 279 bans
Hoodwink
399 picks · 187 bans
Shadow Demon
396 picks · 1070 bans
Puck
388 picks · 853 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 30%
Hero pool strength59% Inner Circle
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Inner Circle
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Inner Circle 58%MODUS 42%
The model gave 58% on Inner Circle — the game was taken by MODUS.
Game 2prediction correct
Inner Circle 58%MODUS 42%
The model gave 58% on Inner Circle — the game was taken by Inner Circle.
Game 3prediction correct
Inner Circle 58%MODUS 42%
The model gave 58% on Inner Circle — the game was taken by Inner Circle.
Model check result
Model favoriteInner Circle · 58%
Series resultInner Circle 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3