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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Южная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Evil Geniuseswin 2:0
series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Thunder Awakenloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Evil Geniuses

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Panda · 14 games
79%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 14 games
64%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Wisper · 13 games
54%
Rubick
Rubick
Matthew · 12 games
58%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Panda · 12 games
67%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Chris Luck · 11 games
73%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Chris Luck · 11 games
55%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Oscar · 11 games
64%

Thunder Awaken

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Panda · 22 games
55%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Michael · 19 games
68%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Accel · 14 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Sacred · 12 games
75%
Rubick
Rubick
Michael · 12 games
58%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Michael · 11 games
45%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
DarkMago · 10 games
40%
Marci
Marci
Matthew · 10 games
30%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
788 picks · 533 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
560 picks · 405 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
537 picks · 438 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
530 picks · 575 bans
56%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
430 picks · 707 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
400 picks · 296 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
399 picks · 784 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
367 picks · 831 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 52%
Hero pool strength56% Evil Geniuses
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total83% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:9
Evil Geniuses 67%Thunder Awaken 33%
The model gave 67% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 37:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverPakazs
38% · 51 game48% · 114 games
Drow RangerSmiling Knight
Drow Ranger
Death Prophet
Death ProphetChris Luck
49% · 174 games54% · 121 game
BroodmotherILICH-
Broodmother
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerWisper
50% · 56 games57% · 263 games
ClockwerkMichael
Clockwerk
Rubick
RubickMatthew
48% · 230 games52% · 54 games
AbaddonMjz
Abaddon
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonPanda
45% · 41 game
Game 2prediction correct35:17
Evil Geniuses 70%Thunder Awaken 30%
The model gave 70% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 35:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinPakazs
52% · 136 games45% · 76 games
AlchemistSmiling Knight
Alchemist
Death Prophet
Death ProphetWisper
48% · 361 game51% · 333 games
Nature's ProphetILICH-
Nature's Prophet
Snapfire
SnapfireChris Luck
50% · 377 games47% · 554 games
RubickMichael
Rubick
Primal Beast
Primal BeastMatthew
45% · 182 games58% · 351 game
UndyingMjz
Undying
Clockwerk
ClockwerkPanda
51% · 258 games
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 83%
Series resultEvil Geniuses 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2