Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Западная Европа. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Betrayed
Clockwerk
OwnedMe · 1 game
Enigmaoften banned
symetricaL · 1 game
Iooften banned
Flash · 1 game
Leshracoften banned
Mirage · 1 game
Marci
Shad · 1 game
Morphlingoften banned
Shad · 1 game
Nature's Prophetoften banned
symetricaL · 1 game
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mirage · 1 game
Team Blink
Silencer
smN · 5 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
smN · 2 games
Crystal Maiden
smN · 1 game
Elder Titan
smN · 1 game
Mirana
smN · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
788 picks · 530 bans
Tiny
559 picks · 404 bans
Tusk
537 picks · 438 bans
Treant Protector
530 picks · 572 bans
Nature's Prophet
430 picks · 704 bans
Snapfire
402 picks · 294 bans
Death Prophet
397 picks · 781 bans
Ember Spirit
367 picks · 830 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 44%
Hero pool strength58% Betrayed
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Betrayed
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:10
Betrayed 56%Team Blink 44%
The model gave 56% on Betrayed — the game was taken by Betrayed in 20:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
ZeusMirage
Drow RangerkAAN
SlarkShad
Ogre MagismN
Death ProphetsymetricaL
TinyOwnedMe
RubickFlash
Game 2prediction correct32:12
Betrayed 54%Team Blink 46%
The model gave 54% on Betrayed — the game was taken by Betrayed in 22:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BroodmothersymetricaL
AlchemistkAAN
LinaShad
UndyingsmN
Storm SpiritMirage
HoodwinkOwnedMe
RubickFlash
Model check result
Model favoriteBetrayed · 53%
Series resultBetrayed 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2