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European Pro League Season 40 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Synapsewin 2:0
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Spirit Academyloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Synapse

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Jeezy · 16 games
56%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Jeezy · 11 games
45%
Mirana
Mirana
emptiness · 9 games
44%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
emptiness · 7 games
71%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Jeezy · 7 games
71%
Bane
Baneoften banned
Stoic · 6 games
33%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
emptiness · 6 games
67%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Infernal · 5 games
40%

Team Spirit Academy

Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Aidar · 24 games
54%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
86 · 17 games
35%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Aidar · 16 games
44%
Batrider
Batridersignature
86 · 13 games
62%
Kunkka
Kunkka
86 · 12 games
25%
Largo
Largosignature
kae · 12 games
67%
Bane
Baneoften banned
kyford · 10 games
50%
Lion
Lion
Aidar · 10 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
485 picks · 292 bans
51%
Mirana
Mirana
348 picks · 148 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
342 picks · 157 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
324 picks · 464 bans
59%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
295 picks · 298 bans
55%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
292 picks · 456 bans
53%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
276 picks · 258 bans
59%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
267 picks · 197 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 52%
Hero pool strength54% Team Synapse
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Team Synapse
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:5
Team Synapse 61%Team Spirit Academy 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Synapse — the game was taken by Team Synapse in 25:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spectre
SpectreTA2000
43% · 18 games56% · 92 games
Primal Beast86
Primal Beast
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightemptiness
50% · 115 games44% · 8 games
Outworld DestroyerKiseki
Outworld Destroyer
Dazzle
Dazzlebengan
47% · 65 games53% · 142 games
Axekae
Axe
Rubick
RubickJeezy
42% · 158 games58% · 47 games
GrimstrokeAidar
Grimstroke
55% · 67 games
Lichsaillyn
Lich
Game 2prediction correct38:47
Team Synapse 64%Team Spirit Academy 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Synapse — the game was taken by Team Synapse in 1:04:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone DruidTA2000
57% · 146 games60% · 87 games
ClinkzKiseki
Clinkz
Timbersaw
Timbersawemptiness
54% · 297 games44% · 247 games
Pangolier86
Pangolier
Ringmaster
RingmasterJeezy
49% · 376 games43% · 209 games
Underlordkae
Underlord
Clockwerk
Clockwerkbengan
51% · 388 games48% · 476 games
Hoodwinksaillyn
Hoodwink
44% · 188 games
Dark WillowAidar
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Synapse · 72%
Series resultTeam Synapse 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2