Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Западная Европа. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Unity Esportswin 2:1series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:1
KKebab-enjoyersloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Unity Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Kebab-enjoyers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
791 picks · 532 bans
Tiny
561 picks · 403 bans
Tusk
537 picks · 439 bans
Treant Protector
529 picks · 572 bans
Nature's Prophet
429 picks · 699 bans
Snapfire
402 picks · 293 bans
Death Prophet
396 picks · 775 bans
Ember Spirit
366 picks · 828 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 57%
Hero pool strength50% Unity Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Unity Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed48:46
Unity Esports 51%Kebab-enjoyers 49%
The model gave 51% on Unity Esports — the game was taken by Kebab-enjoyers in 1:12:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember SpiritPanda
DoomTheBloodySky
Game 2prediction correct38:43
Unity Esports 52%Kebab-enjoyers 48%
The model gave 52% on Unity Esports — the game was taken by Unity Esports in 45:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinyPanda
Primal BeastTheBloodySky
Game 3prediction correct48:17
Unity Esports 56%Kebab-enjoyers 44%
The model gave 56% on Unity Esports — the game was taken by Unity Esports in 30:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm SpiritPanda
MarsTheBloodySky
Model check result
Model favoriteUnity Esports · 53%
Series resultUnity Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3