Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. ЮВА. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionRRectifyloss 0:1
series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 0:1
IHC Esportswin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Rectify
Nature's Prophetoften banned
MangO · 9 games
Snapfire
Sans · 7 games
Tiny
Ponyo · 7 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Wonder'boy · 6 games
Marci
Ws · 5 games
Tusk
Ws · 5 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Ws · 4 games
Hoodwink
Sans · 4 games
IHC Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
790 picks · 534 bans
Tiny
562 picks · 404 bans
Tusk
540 picks · 439 bans
Treant Protector
532 picks · 574 bans
Nature's Prophet
427 picks · 697 bans
Snapfire
402 picks · 296 bans
Death Prophet
395 picks · 774 bans
Ember Spirit
368 picks · 826 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 67%
Hero pool strength56% IHC Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% IHC Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Rectify 32%IHC Esports 68%
The model gave 68% on IHC Esports — the game was taken by IHC Esports.
Model check result
Model favoriteIHC Esports · 68%
Series resultIHC Esports 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1