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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Китай. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Vici Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 13 games
54%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 13 games
77%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
pLAnet · 12 games
67%
Tusk
Tusk
pLAnet · 12 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
y` · 10 games
80%
Tiny
Tiny
XinQ · 9 games
56%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
y` · 8 games
25%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
ELeVeN · 7 games
71%

Vici Gaming

Tusk
Tusksignature
Frisk · 11 games
91%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
fy · 10 games
100%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
poyoyo · 9 games
78%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Setsu · 8 games
88%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Frisk · 8 games
25%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Yang · 7 games
71%
Mars
Marssignature
niu · 7 games
86%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
niu · 7 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
790 picks · 536 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
562 picks · 406 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
541 picks · 440 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
532 picks · 576 bans
56%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
427 picks · 696 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
403 picks · 297 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
395 picks · 772 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
370 picks · 825 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 75%
Hero pool strength57% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total64% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:12
LGD Gaming 57%Vici Gaming 43%
The model gave 57% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 38:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordshiro
50% · 84 games48% · 77 games
Drow Rangerpoyoyo
Drow Ranger
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNothingToSay
60% · 207 games42% · 326 games
Ember SpiritSetsu
Ember Spirit
Pangolier
Pangolierzeal
53% · 440 games49% · 183 games
Marciniu
Marci
Disruptor
DisruptorpLAnet
51% · 192 games46% · 281 game
Rubickfy
Rubick
Abaddon
Abaddony`
55% · 76 games46% · 132 games
EnchantressYang
Enchantress
Game 2prediction correct23:12
LGD Gaming 58%Vici Gaming 42%
The model gave 58% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 33:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursashiro
53% · 127 games42% · 93 games
Shadow Fiendpoyoyo
Shadow Fiend
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNothingToSay
53% · 78 games48% · 107 games
Void SpiritSetsu
Void Spirit
Dark Seer
Dark Seerzeal
60% · 48 games40% · 127 games
Primal Beastniu
Primal Beast
Clockwerk
ClockwerkpLAnet
53% · 231 game55% · 136 games
Phoenixfy
Phoenix
Enchantress
Enchantressy`
52% · 134 games45% · 155 games
Crystal MaidenYang
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 64%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2