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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Западная Европа. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Old Gwin 2:0
series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:0
KZ TEAMloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Old G

Rubick
Rubicksignature
xsvampire · 15 games
60%
Ursa
Ursasignature
Shigetsu · 13 games
77%
Tiny
Tinysignature
xsvampire · 10 games
70%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Hduo · 9 games
67%
Tusk
Tusk
xsvampire · 9 games
56%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
xsvampire · 8 games
50%
Silencer
Silencer
Hduo · 8 games
50%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
young G · 7 games
57%

KZ TEAM

Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
dEsire · 25 games
64%
Snapfire
Snapfire
SsaSpartan · 20 games
45%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
dEsire · 18 games
61%
Rubick
Rubick
dEsire · 18 games
56%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
SkyLark · 17 games
65%
Viper
Vipersignature
SkyLark · 17 games
76%
Batrider
Batridersignature
W1sh- · 13 games
62%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
W1sh- · 13 games
54%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
790 picks · 537 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
562 picks · 406 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
541 picks · 440 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
533 picks · 576 bans
56%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
428 picks · 695 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
401 picks · 297 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
395 picks · 770 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
371 picks · 825 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 46%
Hero pool strength51% KZ TEAM
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total79% Old G
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:7
Old G 66%KZ TEAM 34%
The model gave 66% on Old G — the game was taken by Old G in 21:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingNo[o]ne
56% · 73 games51% · 111 games
TimbersawMr. Luck
Timbersaw
Snapfire
SnapfireResolut1on
42% · 88 games52% · 72 games
InvokerG.T.I
Invoker
Riki
RikiTopson
59% · 11 games
Magnus
MagnusCeb
37% · 11 games
Game 2prediction correct29:15
Old G 66%KZ TEAM 34%
The model gave 66% on Old G — the game was taken by Old G in 23:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerNo[o]ne
65% · 49 games45% · 237 games
SnapfireMr. Luck
Snapfire
Pangolier
PangolierTopson
51% · 154 games42% · 175 games
Primal BeastG.T.I
Primal Beast
Marci
MarciResolut1on
46% · 155 games
Io
IoCeb
65% · 54 games
Model check result
Model favoriteOld G · 79%
Series resultOld G 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2