Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. ЮВА. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Neon Esportswin 2:0series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Carstenszloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Neon Esports
Snapfire
Hated · 6 games
Tusk
PlayHard · 6 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
FortuneSoul · 5 games
Undyingoften banned
Se · 5 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Enryu · 4 games
Chenoften banned
Se · 4 games
Crystal Maiden
Hated · 4 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
FortuneSoul · 4 games
Carstensz
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
790 picks · 535 bans
Tiny
562 picks · 406 bans
Tusk
541 picks · 440 bans
Treant Protector
533 picks · 576 bans
Nature's Prophet
428 picks · 695 bans
Snapfire
401 picks · 297 bans
Death Prophet
395 picks · 768 bans
Ember Spirit
371 picks · 824 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 63%
Hero pool strength55% Carstensz
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:19
Neon Esports 56%Carstensz 44%
The model gave 56% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 30:42.
Game 2prediction correct32:13
Neon Esports 56%Carstensz 44%
The model gave 56% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 25:22.
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 56%
Series resultNeon Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2