Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Восточная Европа. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Matreshka Teamwin 2:1series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:1
BAZA Esportsloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Matreshka Team
Crystal Maiden
JANTER · 4 games
Primal Beastoften banned
egxrdemxn · 3 games
Rubick
Lagoona · 3 games
Doomoften banned
egxrdemxn · 2 games
Lycanoften banned
egxrdemxn · 2 games
Morphlingoften banned
Retsu · 2 games
Silencer
JANTER · 2 games
Tiny
Lagoona · 2 games
BAZA Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
787 picks · 535 bans
Tiny
562 picks · 407 bans
Tusk
543 picks · 441 bans
Treant Protector
533 picks · 576 bans
Nature's Prophet
428 picks · 695 bans
Snapfire
402 picks · 297 bans
Death Prophet
396 picks · 766 bans
Ember Spirit
372 picks · 825 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 56%
Hero pool strength51% BAZA Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Matreshka Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:32
Matreshka Team 59%BAZA Esports 41%
The model gave 59% on Matreshka Team — the game was taken by BAZA Esports in 35:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaRetsu
MarsMastery
Broodmotheregxrdemxn
Rubickweebian
HoodwinkLagoona
EnchantressJANTER
Game 2prediction correct37:16
Matreshka Team 58%BAZA Esports 42%
The model gave 58% on Matreshka Team — the game was taken by Matreshka Team in 37:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterRetsu
EnigmaMastery
Primal Beastegxrdemxn
Rubickweebian
TinyLagoona
DisruptorJANTER
Game 3prediction correct51:22
Matreshka Team 55%BAZA Esports 45%
The model gave 55% on Matreshka Team — the game was taken by Matreshka Team in 43:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeRetsu
VisageMastery
Timbersawegxrdemxn
Tuskweebian
RubickLagoona
Crystal MaidenJANTER
Model check result
Model favoriteMatreshka Team · 65%
Series resultMatreshka Team 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3