Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Китай. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
HYPEONEloss 1:2series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Nnuoyanwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HYPEONE
Batrideroften banned
Sakata · 1 game
Brewmasteroften banned
Shining · 1 game
Death Prophetoften banned
Shining · 1 game
Doomoften banned
Shining · 1 game
Linaoften banned
Sakata · 1 game
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
Sakata · 1 game
Puckoften banned
Sakata · 1 game
Timbersawoften banned
Shining · 1 game
nuoyan
Crystal Maiden
谢乐zzz张泽中 · 3 games
Abaddonoften banned
谢乐zzz张泽中 · 1 game
Snapfire
谢乐zzz张泽中 · 1 game
Sven
谢乐zzz张泽中 · 1 game
Undyingoften banned
谢乐zzz张泽中 · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
785 picks · 536 bans
Tiny
562 picks · 407 bans
Tusk
543 picks · 440 bans
Treant Protector
534 picks · 577 bans
Nature's Prophet
428 picks · 691 bans
Snapfire
402 picks · 296 bans
Death Prophet
395 picks · 764 bans
Ember Spirit
371 picks · 821 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% nuoyan
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% nuoyan
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:27
HYPEONE 44%nuoyan 56%
The model gave 56% on nuoyan — the game was taken by nuoyan in 45:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm SpiritSakata
Mirana谢乐zzz张泽中
Death ProphetShining
Game 2prediction missed32:17
HYPEONE 45%nuoyan 55%
The model gave 55% on nuoyan — the game was taken by HYPEONE in 33:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightSakata
Rubick谢乐zzz张泽中
BatriderShining
Game 3prediction correct6:25
HYPEONE 43%nuoyan 57%
The model gave 57% on nuoyan — the game was taken by nuoyan in 35:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BatriderSakata
Mirana谢乐zzz张泽中
BeastmasterShining
Model check result
Model favoritenuoyan · 60%
Series resultnuoyan 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3