Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Китай. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
iG Vitalitywin 2:0series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:0
孤孤独摇滚loss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
iG Vitality
Ember Spiritsignature
Ash · 6 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
ukiyo · 6 games
Jakiro
Sj · 5 games
Clockwerk
Sj · 4 games
Undyingoften banned
Sj · 4 games
Drow Rangeroften banned
ukiyo · 3 games
Lycanoften banned
Summer · 3 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Summer · 3 games
孤独摇滚
Beastmasteroften banned
strawberry · 1 game
Nature's Prophetoften banned
strawberry · 1 game
Primal Beastoften banned
strawberry · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
785 picks · 538 bans
Tiny
563 picks · 406 bans
Tusk
543 picks · 441 bans
Treant Protector
534 picks · 576 bans
Nature's Prophet
428 picks · 688 bans
Snapfire
403 picks · 296 bans
Death Prophet
396 picks · 761 bans
Ember Spirit
372 picks · 821 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 57%
Hero pool strength51% iG Vitality
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% iG Vitality
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:13
iG Vitality 51%孤独摇滚 49%
The model gave 51% on iG Vitality — the game was taken by iG Vitality in 33:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Rangerukiyo
Death Prophetstrawberry
ZeusAsh
Beastmasterdolem
RubickDrink
UndyingSj
Game 2prediction correct28:15
iG Vitality 53%孤独摇滚 47%
The model gave 53% on iG Vitality — the game was taken by iG Vitality in 34:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniperukiyo
Marsstrawberry
Underlorddolem
Ember SpiritAsh
TuskDrink
JakiroSj
Model check result
Model favoriteiG Vitality · 51%
Series resultiG Vitality 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2