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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Китай. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Asterwin 2:0
series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Aster.Ariesloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Aster

Tiny
Tinysignature
BoBoKa · 19 games
63%
Snapfire
Snapfire
BoBoKa · 14 games
57%
Marci
Marcisignature
BoBoKa · 13 games
69%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Xwy · 12 games
67%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Fantasy · 12 games
50%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangersignature
Monet · 11 games
64%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
BoBoKa · 10 games
100%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Xxs · 10 games
80%

Aster.Aries

Phoenix
Phoenix
RedPanda · 8 games
38%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
White丶Album · 7 games
71%
Tusk
Tusk
White丶Album · 7 games
14%
Tiny
Tiny
TK · 6 games
33%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
White丶Album · 5 games
40%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
RedPanda · 5 games
40%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Ulu · 5 games
40%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
生死 · 4 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
785 picks · 538 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
562 picks · 406 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
543 picks · 441 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
533 picks · 576 bans
56%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
427 picks · 688 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
403 picks · 297 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
395 picks · 761 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
371 picks · 822 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 31%
Hero pool strength61% Team Aster
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total88% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:17
Team Aster 74%Aster.Aries 26%
The model gave 74% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 35:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautMonet
50% · 98 games43% · 283 games
Ember SpiritWhite丶Album
Ember Spirit
Doom
DoomXxs
52% · 241 game56% · 98 games
UrsaUlu
Ursa
Batrider
BatriderXwy
45% · 262 games52% · 231 game
Marci生死
Marci
Enchantress
EnchantressBoBoKa
49% · 252 games55% · 248 games
MiranaTK
Mirana
Disruptor
DisruptorFantasy
48% · 190 games51% · 183 games
Treant ProtectorRedPanda
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction correct21:12
Team Aster 75%Aster.Aries 25%
The model gave 75% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 24:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetMonet
55% · 243 games43% · 145 games
AlchemistUlu
Alchemist
Puck
PuckXwy
50% · 256 games46% · 494 games
Pangolier生死
Pangolier
Enigma
EnigmaXxs
53% · 193 games48% · 509 games
Death ProphetWhite丶Album
Death Prophet
Tiny
TinyBoBoKa
46% · 592 games51% · 208 games
PhoenixTK
Phoenix
Undying
UndyingFantasy
52% · 252 games55% · 180 games
DisruptorRedPanda
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 88%
Series resultTeam Aster 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2