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European Pro League Season 36 · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarineloss 1:2
series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Ilbirs eSportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yellow Submarine

Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Htrd · 34 games
62%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 21 game
57%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Mirele · 21 game
48%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Infernal · 18 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
bottega · 17 games
59%
Warlock
Warlock
Htrd · 16 games
56%
Muerta
Muertasignature
bottega · 15 games
67%
Tusk
Tusk
prblms · 15 games
47%

Ilbirs eSports

Mars
Marsoften banned
Norma · 7 games
29%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
egx · 6 games
33%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
xsvampire · 5 games
20%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Miyaoo · 4 games
25%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Undyne_ · 4 games
0%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
Norma · 4 games
75%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
rubikon155 · 4 games
25%
Tiny
Tiny
xsvampire · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
642 picks · 655 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
514 picks · 435 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
490 picks · 415 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
440 picks · 442 bans
54%
Warlock
Warlock
430 picks · 280 bans
48%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
404 picks · 187 bans
59%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
402 picks · 1090 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
395 picks · 859 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 33%
Hero pool strength60% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Yellow Submarine 80%Ilbirs eSports 20%
The model gave 80% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Ilbirs eSports.
Game 2prediction correct
Yellow Submarine 80%Ilbirs eSports 20%
The model gave 80% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine.
Game 3prediction missed
Yellow Submarine 80%Ilbirs eSports 20%
The model gave 80% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Ilbirs eSports.
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 80%
Series resultIlbirs eSports 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3