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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Северная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Feltwin 2:0
series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Wildcard Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Felt

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Chen · 9 games
44%
Tiny
Tiny
solji · 9 games
44%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Fayde · 7 games
57%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Fayde · 6 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Shoe · 6 games
83%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
solji · 6 games
67%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Fayde · 6 games
67%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
The Warden · 6 games
33%

Wildcard Gaming

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Sammyboy · 11 games
64%
Rubick
Rubick
FrancisLee · 10 games
50%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Babitich · 8 games
63%
Tusk
Tusk
Sammyboy · 8 games
25%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Sunlight · 6 games
50%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
FrancisLee · 6 games
83%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Sammyboy · 5 games
40%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Sunlight · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
783 picks · 534 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
558 picks · 402 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
543 picks · 441 bans
50%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
534 picks · 573 bans
56%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
425 picks · 684 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
401 picks · 294 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
390 picks · 757 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
370 picks · 813 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 33%
Hero pool strength53% Felt
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total67% Wildcard Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:24
Felt 41%Wildcard Gaming 59%
The model gave 59% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Felt in 42:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetBerna
54% · 208 games47% · 142 games
MorphlingYawaR
Morphling
Beastmaster
BeastmasterFayde
48% · 233 games54% · 95 games
BroodmotherLil_Nick
Broodmother
Rubick
Rubicksolji
43% · 462 games54% · 137 games
DisruptorMSS
Disruptor
Dazzle
Dazzlealbinozebra
49% · 81 game51% · 610 games
TinySammyboy
Tiny
Game 2prediction missed34:31
Felt 42%Wildcard Gaming 58%
The model gave 58% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Felt in 1:05:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetBerna
57% · 227 games42% · 94 games
Drow RangerYawaR
Drow Ranger
Beastmaster
BeastmasterFayde
53% · 216 games54% · 171 game
Primal BeastLil_Nick
Primal Beast
Rubick
Rubicksolji
49% · 397 games52% · 269 games
MiranaMSS
Mirana
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteralbinozebra
38% · 44 games50% · 350 games
Death ProphetSammyboy
Death Prophet
Model check result
Model favoriteWildcard Gaming · 67%
Series resultFelt 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2