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European Pro League Season 36 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Lynxwin 2:0
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Lynx

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 24 games
58%
Underlord
Underlordsignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 23 games
65%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
7jesu · 20 games
65%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
mellojul · 20 games
65%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
mellojul · 19 games
53%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
mellojul · 18 games
61%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
QBFY · 18 games
61%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
7jesu · 18 games
56%

Nemiga Gaming

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
VaniLLl · 19 games
37%
Puck
Pucksignature
young G · 13 games
62%
Phoenix
Phoenix
VaniLLl · 12 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
ariel · 11 games
45%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
ariel · 11 games
55%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Covisnine · 10 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
VaniLLl · 10 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
young G · 10 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
643 picks · 665 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
520 picks · 438 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
495 picks · 417 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
444 picks · 443 bans
54%
Warlock
Warlock
432 picks · 281 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
407 picks · 1095 bans
56%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
404 picks · 187 bans
59%
Puck
Puck
399 picks · 862 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 54%
Hero pool strength56% Team Lynx
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total65% Team Lynx
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Team Lynx 65%Nemiga Gaming 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx.
Game 2prediction correct
Team Lynx 65%Nemiga Gaming 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Lynx · 65%
Series resultTeam Lynx 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2