European Pro League Season 36 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spirit Academyloss 0:2series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 0:2
MODUSwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit Academy
Dark Willow
Aidar · 20 games
Jakirooften banned
kyford · 18 games
Abaddonoften banned
rubikon155 · 15 games
Lion
Aidar · 15 games
Warlock
kyford · 15 games
Dazzleoften banned
kyford · 14 games
Witch Doctor
Aidar · 13 games
Primal Beast
SunshineRR · 12 games
MODUS
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 3 games
Beastmasteroften banned
bottega · 2 games
Muerta
bottega · 2 games
Rubick
mrls · 2 games
Void Spirit
Mirele · 2 games
Alchemistoften banned
bottega · 1 game
Bristlebackoften banned
elmo^^ · 1 game
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
elmo^^ · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
646 picks · 670 bans
Tiny
523 picks · 441 bans
Tusk
498 picks · 418 bans
Phoenix
445 picks · 443 bans
Warlock
433 picks · 283 bans
Shadow Demon
409 picks · 1098 bans
Hoodwink
404 picks · 189 bans
Puck
403 picks · 863 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 22%
Hero pool strength50% Team Spirit Academy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% MODUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Team Spirit Academy 43%MODUS 57%
The model gave 57% on MODUS — the game was taken by MODUS.
Game 2prediction correct
Team Spirit Academy 43%MODUS 57%
The model gave 57% on MODUS — the game was taken by MODUS.
Model check result
Model favoriteMODUS · 57%
Series resultMODUS 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2