Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Северная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
B8 Esportsloss 0:2series probability
16%84%
probability at match start · final 0:2
nounswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
B8 Esports
Snapfire
Alexxo · 14 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Dendi · 10 games
Rubick
MoOz · 7 games
Broodmotheroften banned
Davai · 6 games
Silencer
Sammyboy · 6 games
Linaoften banned
StoneBank · 5 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
YamSun · 5 games
Rikioften banned
MoOz · 5 games
nouns
Tusk
Gunnar · 13 games
Rubicksignature
Lelis · 12 games
Undyingoften banned
Husky · 9 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Moo · 7 games
Doomsignature
Moo · 6 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Moo · 6 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
YamSun · 5 games
Snapfire
Lelis · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
782 picks · 531 bans
Tiny
558 picks · 401 bans
Tusk
542 picks · 440 bans
Treant Protector
534 picks · 572 bans
Nature's Prophet
425 picks · 681 bans
Snapfire
400 picks · 294 bans
Death Prophet
389 picks · 753 bans
Ember Spirit
369 picks · 813 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 69%
Hero pool strength58% nouns
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total84% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:26
B8 Esports 31%nouns 69%
The model gave 69% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 51:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Primal BeastDendi
Drow RangerYamSun
SlarkStoneBank
Ember SpiritGunnar
Dragon KnightFunn1k
TidehunterMoo
WarlockLodine
DisruptorLelis
MiranaCTOMAHEH1
UndyingHusky
Game 2prediction correct1:22
B8 Esports 29%nouns 71%
The model gave 71% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 24:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom LancerStoneBank
Lone DruidGunnar
Death ProphetFunn1k
Drow RangerYamSun
Storm SpiritDendi
SnapfireMoo
Primal BeastCTOMAHEH1
TuskLelis
RubickLodine
UndyingHusky
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 84%
Series resultnouns 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2