Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Западная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Plasmaloss 0:2series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 0:2
KZ TEAMwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Plasma
Bristleback
legacy · 1 game
Sven
legacy · 1 game
KZ TEAM
Earthshakersignature
dEsire · 25 games
Snapfire
SsaSpartan · 20 games
Primal Beastsignature
dEsire · 18 games
Rubick
dEsire · 18 games
Beastmastersignature
SkyLark · 17 games
Vipersignature
SkyLark · 17 games
Batridersignature
W1sh- · 13 games
Death Prophetoften banned
W1sh- · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
782 picks · 530 bans
Tiny
558 picks · 400 bans
Tusk
542 picks · 440 bans
Treant Protector
534 picks · 572 bans
Nature's Prophet
425 picks · 679 bans
Snapfire
400 picks · 294 bans
Death Prophet
389 picks · 753 bans
Ember Spirit
369 picks · 813 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 42%
Hero pool strength53% KZ TEAM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Plasma
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed50:36
Plasma 52%KZ TEAM 48%
The model gave 52% on Plasma — the game was taken by KZ TEAM in 43:08.
Game 2prediction missed32:16
Plasma 52%KZ TEAM 48%
The model gave 52% on Plasma — the game was taken by KZ TEAM in 26:08.
Model check result
Model favoritePlasma · 52%
Series resultKZ TEAM 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2