Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Восточная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincereloss 0:2series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Hydrawin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Natus Vincere
Clockwerksignature
swedenstrong · 10 games
Drow Rangersignature
V-Tune · 10 games
Silencer
Solo · 10 games
Visageoften banned
laise · 9 games
Primal Beastoften banned
nicky`cool · 7 games
Tiny
swedenstrong · 7 games
Tusk
swedenstrong · 7 games
Leshracsignature
No[o]ne · 6 games
Hydra
Tusksignature
Lefitan · 26 games
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 17 games
Batridersignature
Worick · 16 games
Disruptorsignature
HappyDyurara · 15 games
Lycansignature
Cloud · 11 games
Clockwerksignature
HappyDyurara · 10 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Lefitan · 10 games
Treant Protectorsignature
HappyDyurara · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
781 picks · 530 bans
Tiny
558 picks · 400 bans
Tusk
542 picks · 440 bans
Treant Protector
534 picks · 572 bans
Nature's Prophet
425 picks · 679 bans
Snapfire
400 picks · 293 bans
Death Prophet
389 picks · 752 bans
Ember Spirit
367 picks · 813 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)31% vs 72%
Hero pool strength63% Hydra
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:23
Natus Vincere 42%Hydra 58%
The model gave 58% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 34:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
ClinkzShigetsu
MedusaKami
TidehunterMalik
Monkey KingWorick
Ember Spiritmellojul
BeastmasterCloud
Rubickxsvampire
EnchantressLefitan
UndyingMalady
DisruptorHappyDyurara
Game 2prediction correct24:37
Natus Vincere 44%Hydra 56%
The model gave 56% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 41:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-MageShigetsu
Chaos KnightKami
Ember Spiritmellojul
Dragon KnightCloud
Primal BeastMalik
Storm SpiritWorick
Disruptorxsvampire
EnchantressHappyDyurara
LichMalady
IoLefitan
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 60%
Series resultHydra 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2