Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Южная Америка. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Shark Boyswin 2:0series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:0
RERandoms Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Shark Boys
No games played over 6 months.
Randoms Esports
Templar Assassinoften banned
Benny · 2 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
Benny · 2 games
Gyrocopter
Benny · 1 game
Lycanoften banned
Benny · 1 game
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Benny · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
782 picks · 529 bans
Tiny
559 picks · 398 bans
Tusk
542 picks · 439 bans
Treant Protector
534 picks · 572 bans
Nature's Prophet
425 picks · 678 bans
Snapfire
400 picks · 291 bans
Death Prophet
389 picks · 751 bans
Ember Spirit
368 picks · 812 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 43%
Hero pool strength51% Shark Boys
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Randoms Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed45:25
Shark Boys 45%Randoms Esports 55%
The model gave 55% on Randoms Esports — the game was taken by Shark Boys in 43:46.
Game 2prediction missed40:35
Shark Boys 45%Randoms Esports 55%
The model gave 55% on Randoms Esports — the game was taken by Shark Boys in 42:04.
Model check result
Model favoriteRandoms Esports · 55%
Series resultShark Boys 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2