Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Южная Америка. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionPPAREDAOloss 0:2
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 0:2
TETeam Electrawin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PAREDAO
No games played over 6 months.
Team Electra
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
782 picks · 528 bans
Tiny
559 picks · 396 bans
Tusk
542 picks · 439 bans
Treant Protector
534 picks · 572 bans
Nature's Prophet
425 picks · 677 bans
Snapfire
400 picks · 291 bans
Death Prophet
389 picks · 749 bans
Ember Spirit
368 picks · 811 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% PAREDAO
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Team Electra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:17
PAREDAO 43%Team Electra 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Electra — the game was taken by Team Electra in 41:20.
Game 2prediction correct38:33
PAREDAO 43%Team Electra 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Electra — the game was taken by Team Electra in 52:59.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Electra · 57%
Series resultTeam Electra 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2