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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Восточная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
BAZA Esportswin 2:1
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:1
EZ KATKAloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BAZA Esports

No games played over 6 months.

EZ KATKA

Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Rvze · 6 games
83%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Blizzy · 5 games
60%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Lukas · 5 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Rvze · 5 games
60%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Lefitan · 5 games
40%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Rvze · 3 games
33%
Marci
Marci
Lefitan · 3 games
33%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Lefitan · 3 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
782 picks · 526 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
559 picks · 399 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
542 picks · 443 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
534 picks · 572 bans
56%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
425 picks · 676 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
400 picks · 291 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
389 picks · 746 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
368 picks · 806 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 60%
Hero pool strength53% EZ KATKA
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% EZ KATKA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:39
BAZA Esports 42%EZ KATKA 58%
The model gave 58% on EZ KATKA — the game was taken by EZ KATKA in 39:03.
Game 2prediction missed22:42
BAZA Esports 42%EZ KATKA 58%
The model gave 58% on EZ KATKA — the game was taken by BAZA Esports in 33:46.
Game 3prediction missed29:48
BAZA Esports 42%EZ KATKA 58%
The model gave 58% on EZ KATKA — the game was taken by BAZA Esports in 38:33.
Model check result
Model favoriteEZ KATKA · 58%
Series resultBAZA Esports 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3