Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Восточная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
BAZA Esportsloss 1:2series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 1:2
UALEIKUMNIHAOwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BAZA Esports
No games played over 6 months.
UALEIKUMNIHAO
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
783 picks · 523 bans
Tiny
559 picks · 402 bans
Tusk
544 picks · 445 bans
Treant Protector
534 picks · 574 bans
Nature's Prophet
425 picks · 672 bans
Snapfire
402 picks · 293 bans
Death Prophet
388 picks · 741 bans
Ember Spirit
369 picks · 807 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 67%
Hero pool strength50% BAZA Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% UALEIKUMNIHAO
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:34
BAZA Esports 46%UALEIKUMNIHAO 54%
The model gave 54% on UALEIKUMNIHAO — the game was taken by BAZA Esports in 28:05.
Game 2prediction correct51:22
BAZA Esports 46%UALEIKUMNIHAO 54%
The model gave 54% on UALEIKUMNIHAO — the game was taken by UALEIKUMNIHAO in 35:31.
Game 3prediction correct9:39
BAZA Esports 46%UALEIKUMNIHAO 54%
The model gave 54% on UALEIKUMNIHAO — the game was taken by UALEIKUMNIHAO in 27:48.
Model check result
Model favoriteUALEIKUMNIHAO · 54%
Series resultUALEIKUMNIHAO 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3