?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Восточная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
HellRaiserswin 2:1
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:1
One Moveloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HellRaisers

No games played over 6 months.

One Move

Tiny
Tiny
Gilgir · 20 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
Gilgir · 16 games
50%
Mirana
Mirana
Panto · 15 games
47%
Tusk
Tusk
Ainkrad · 12 games
42%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Panto · 11 games
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
xsvampire · 10 games
50%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
AfterLife · 10 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 9 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
781 picks · 522 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
558 picks · 401 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
544 picks · 445 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
534 picks · 574 bans
56%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
423 picks · 672 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
402 picks · 292 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
388 picks · 739 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
368 picks · 806 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 47%
Hero pool strength51% One Move
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total57% HellRaisers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:7
HellRaisers 57%One Move 43%
The model gave 57% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by One Move in 21:23.
Game 2prediction missed32:41
HellRaisers 57%One Move 43%
The model gave 57% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by One Move in 51:11.
Game 3prediction missed36:13
HellRaisers 57%One Move 43%
The model gave 57% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by One Move in 33:37.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellRaisers · 57%
Series resultHellRaisers 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3