Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Китай. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionNnuoyanloss 0:2
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 0:2
孤孤独摇滚win 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
nuoyan
Crystal Maiden
谢乐zzz张泽中 · 3 games
Abaddonoften banned
谢乐zzz张泽中 · 1 game
Sven
谢乐zzz张泽中 · 1 game
孤独摇滚
Primal Beastoften banned
strawberry · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
781 picks · 524 bans
Tiny
558 picks · 403 bans
Tusk
544 picks · 446 bans
Treant Protector
534 picks · 575 bans
Nature's Prophet
423 picks · 673 bans
Snapfire
401 picks · 292 bans
Death Prophet
388 picks · 737 bans
Ember Spirit
369 picks · 805 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% nuoyan
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% nuoyan
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed8:27
nuoyan 55%孤独摇滚 45%
The model gave 55% on nuoyan — the game was taken by 孤独摇滚 in 31:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Undying谢乐zzz张泽中
Beastmasterstrawberry
Game 2prediction missed36:45
nuoyan 52%孤独摇滚 48%
The model gave 52% on nuoyan — the game was taken by 孤独摇滚 in 43:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Snapfire谢乐zzz张泽中
Nature's Prophetstrawberry
Model check result
Model favoritenuoyan · 59%
Series result孤独摇滚 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2