Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. ЮВА. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Team M11loss 0:2series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 0:2
IHC Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team M11
No games played over 6 months.
IHC Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
781 picks · 523 bans
Tiny
558 picks · 404 bans
Tusk
544 picks · 444 bans
Treant Protector
534 picks · 575 bans
Nature's Prophet
423 picks · 672 bans
Snapfire
401 picks · 291 bans
Death Prophet
388 picks · 738 bans
Ember Spirit
369 picks · 802 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 57%
Hero pool strength50% Team M11
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Team M11
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:52
Team M11 52%IHC Esports 48%
The model gave 52% on Team M11 — the game was taken by IHC Esports in 37:16.
Game 2prediction missed8:41
Team M11 52%IHC Esports 48%
The model gave 52% on Team M11 — the game was taken by IHC Esports in 30:48.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam M11 · 52%
Series resultIHC Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2