Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Китай. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Invictus Gamingloss 0:2series probability
16%84%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Asterwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Team Aster
Tinysignature
BoBoKa · 19 games
Snapfire
BoBoKa · 14 games
Marcisignature
BoBoKa · 13 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Xwy · 12 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
Fantasy · 12 games
Drow Rangersignature
Monet · 11 games
Phoenixsignature
Fantasy · 10 games
Rubick
BoBoKa · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
781 picks · 521 bans
Tiny
558 picks · 403 bans
Tusk
544 picks · 444 bans
Treant Protector
534 picks · 575 bans
Nature's Prophet
423 picks · 672 bans
Snapfire
401 picks · 291 bans
Death Prophet
388 picks · 738 bans
Ember Spirit
369 picks · 802 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 52%
Hero pool strength55% Team Aster
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total84% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:15
Invictus Gaming 16%Team Aster 84%
The model gave 84% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 38:25.
Game 2prediction correct22:23
Invictus Gaming 16%Team Aster 84%
The model gave 84% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 50:50.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 84%
Series resultTeam Aster 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2