European Pro League Season 36 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:1series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Inner Circleloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nemiga Gaming
Jakirooften banned
VaniLLl · 19 games
Pucksignature
young G · 13 games
Phoenix
VaniLLl · 12 games
Hoodwink
ariel · 11 games
Shadow Shaman
ariel · 11 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Covisnine · 10 games
Disruptor
VaniLLl · 10 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
young G · 10 games
Inner Circle
Warlock
Se · 24 games
Tusk
Fernans · 21 game
Hoodwink
Fernans · 19 games
Puckoften banned
niche · 19 games
Tiny
Jing · 19 games
Jakirooften banned
Se · 18 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
423 · 16 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
niche · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
649 picks · 683 bans
Tiny
525 picks · 448 bans
Tusk
503 picks · 422 bans
Phoenix
447 picks · 443 bans
Warlock
435 picks · 287 bans
Shadow Demon
412 picks · 1112 bans
Puck
406 picks · 869 bans
Hoodwink
405 picks · 190 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 43%
Hero pool strength51% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total68% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Nemiga Gaming 68%Inner Circle 32%
The model gave 68% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming.
Game 2prediction missed
Nemiga Gaming 68%Inner Circle 32%
The model gave 68% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Inner Circle.
Game 3prediction correct
Nemiga Gaming 68%Inner Circle 32%
The model gave 68% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 68%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3