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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Китай. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
HYPEONEloss 0:2
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 0:2
iG Vitalitywin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HYPEONE

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Sakata · 1 game
0%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Shining · 1 game
0%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Shining · 1 game
0%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Sakata · 1 game
0%

iG Vitality

Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
ukiyo · 6 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Sj · 4 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Summer · 4 games
75%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Sj · 4 games
50%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangeroften banned
ukiyo · 3 games
33%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Sj · 3 games
67%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
Summer · 3 games
33%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
ukiyo · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
781 picks · 521 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
558 picks · 403 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
542 picks · 444 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
534 picks · 575 bans
56%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
422 picks · 672 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
401 picks · 289 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
388 picks · 736 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
367 picks · 802 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 55%
Hero pool strength54% iG Vitality
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% iG Vitality
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:34
HYPEONE 46%iG Vitality 54%
The model gave 54% on iG Vitality — the game was taken by iG Vitality in 33:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckSakata
51% · 189 games53% · 40 games
Ursaukiyo
Ursa
Brewmaster
BrewmasterShining
45% · 65 games57% · 6 games
Dark Seerdolem
Dark Seer
46% · 101 game
Ember SpiritAsh
Ember Spirit
54% · 77 games
TuskDrink
Tusk
51% · 30 games
JakiroSj
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct12:28
HYPEONE 46%iG Vitality 54%
The model gave 54% on iG Vitality — the game was taken by iG Vitality in 31:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyerSakata
48% · 25 games53% · 15 games
Naga Sirenukiyo
Naga Siren
Timbersaw
TimbersawShining
48% · 142 games57% · 48 games
Nature's Prophetdolem
Nature's Prophet
44% · 38 games
Ember SpiritAsh
Ember Spirit
54% · 61 game
TuskDrink
Tusk
56% · 5 games
JakiroSj
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteiG Vitality · 57%
Series resultiG Vitality 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2