Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. ЮВА. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Carstenszwin 1:0series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 1:0
RRectifyloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Carstensz
No games played over 6 months.
Rectify
Nature's Prophetoften banned
MangO · 9 games
Snapfire
Sans · 7 games
Tiny
Ponyo · 7 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Wonder'boy · 6 games
Marci
Ws · 5 games
Tusk
Ws · 5 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Ws · 4 games
Hoodwink
Sans · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
782 picks · 520 bans
Tiny
558 picks · 401 bans
Tusk
542 picks · 445 bans
Treant Protector
534 picks · 575 bans
Nature's Prophet
423 picks · 670 bans
Snapfire
401 picks · 289 bans
Death Prophet
388 picks · 736 bans
Ember Spirit
367 picks · 798 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 50%
Hero pool strength57% Carstensz
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Carstensz
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Carstensz 61%Rectify 39%
The model gave 61% on Carstensz — the game was taken by Carstensz.
Model check result
Model favoriteCarstensz · 61%
Series resultCarstensz 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1