Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Китай. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Holy Grailloss 0:2series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Piggy Killerwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Holy Grail
Death Prophetoften banned
Tzy · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 1 game
Mirana
omoxiloyi · 1 game
Nyx Assassinoften banned
omoxiloyi · 1 game
Shadow Fiendoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 1 game
Underlordoften banned
Tzy · 1 game
Piggy Killer
Beastmasteroften banned
Srf · 1 game
Clockwerk
Victoria · 1 game
Mirana
Frisk · 1 game
Nature's Prophetoften banned
flyfly · 1 game
Queen of Painoften banned
Xm · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
780 picks · 520 bans
Tiny
556 picks · 401 bans
Tusk
541 picks · 445 bans
Treant Protector
533 picks · 575 bans
Nature's Prophet
421 picks · 669 bans
Snapfire
401 picks · 289 bans
Death Prophet
388 picks · 732 bans
Ember Spirit
365 picks · 796 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 71%
Hero pool strength51% Piggy Killer
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Piggy Killer
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:38
Holy Grail 41%Piggy Killer 59%
The model gave 59% on Piggy Killer — the game was taken by Piggy Killer in 1:06:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember SpiritButterflyEffect
Monkey Kingflyfly
VenomancerTzy
Storm SpiritXm
Rubickomoxiloyi
BeastmasterSrf
50% · 146 games
SilencerVictoria
52% · 463 games
TinyFrisk
Game 2prediction correct21:36
Holy Grail 41%Piggy Killer 59%
The model gave 59% on Piggy Killer — the game was taken by Piggy Killer in 33:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TuskButterflyEffect
Nature's Prophetflyfly
PangolierTzy
PuckXm
Rubickomoxiloyi
EnigmaSrf
44% · 82 games
JakiroVictoria
49% · 707 games
TinyFrisk
Model check result
Model favoritePiggy Killer · 66%
Series resultPiggy Killer 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2