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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Китай. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Aster.Ariesloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 13 games
54%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 13 games
77%
Tusk
Tusk
pLAnet · 12 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
pLAnet · 11 games
64%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
y` · 9 games
78%
Tiny
Tiny
XinQ · 9 games
56%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
y` · 8 games
25%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
ELeVeN · 7 games
71%

Aster.Aries

Phoenix
Phoenix
RedPanda · 7 games
43%
Tusk
Tusk
White丶Album · 7 games
14%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
White丶Album · 6 games
83%
Tiny
Tiny
TK · 6 games
33%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
White丶Album · 5 games
40%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
生死 · 4 games
75%
Rubick
Rubick
TK · 4 games
25%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
RedPanda · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
780 picks · 520 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
556 picks · 401 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
541 picks · 445 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
533 picks · 575 bans
56%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
421 picks · 669 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
401 picks · 289 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
388 picks · 732 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
365 picks · 796 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 33%
Hero pool strength55% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total86% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:11
LGD Gaming 70%Aster.Aries 30%
The model gave 70% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 41:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetzeal
50% · 215 games53% · 141 game
MorphlingUlu
Morphling
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidshiro
49% · 125 games58% · 136 games
LeshracWhite丶Album
Leshrac
Kunkka
KunkkaNothingToSay
40% · 85 games49% · 41 game
Underlord生死
Underlord
Enchantress
Enchantressy`
51% · 117 games46% · 125 games
Primal BeastTK
Primal Beast
Phoenix
PhoenixpLAnet
46% · 132 games56% · 231 game
Treant ProtectorRedPanda
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction correct29:4
LGD Gaming 73%Aster.Aries 27%
The model gave 73% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 22:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
Lunashiro
53% · 54 games48% · 84 games
UrsaUlu
Ursa
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNothingToSay
58% · 184 games43% · 276 games
Ember SpiritWhite丶Album
Ember Spirit
Beastmaster
Beastmasterzeal
54% · 233 games47% · 100 games
Tidehunter生死
Tidehunter
Silencer
Silencery`
50% · 130 games50% · 136 games
EnchantressTK
Enchantress
Disruptor
DisruptorpLAnet
46% · 112 games51% · 117 games
PhoenixRedPanda
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 86%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2