Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Китай. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Brightwin 2:0series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Supernovaloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Bright
Doomoften banned
Irving · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
phoenix · 1 game
Grimstroke
Undyne_ · 1 game
Legion Commanderoften banned
Irving · 1 game
Snapfire
Undyne_ · 1 game
Tiny
phoenix · 1 game
Supernova
Hoodwink
sheep · 4 games
Earthshaker
sheep · 3 games
Rubick
sheep · 3 games
Mirana
sheep · 2 games
Snapfire
sheep · 2 games
Tusk
sheep · 2 games
Dark Willow
sheep · 1 game
Earth Spirit
sheep · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
780 picks · 519 bans
Tiny
556 picks · 401 bans
Tusk
541 picks · 444 bans
Treant Protector
533 picks · 575 bans
Nature's Prophet
421 picks · 668 bans
Snapfire
401 picks · 288 bans
Death Prophet
387 picks · 731 bans
Ember Spirit
365 picks · 796 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 62%
Hero pool strength56% Team Bright
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Team Bright
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:12
Team Bright 57%Supernova 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Bright — the game was taken by Team Bright in 31:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spiritphoenix
Earth Spiritsheep
Primal BeastIrving
SilencerUndyne_
Game 2prediction correct32:13
Team Bright 53%Supernova 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Bright — the game was taken by Team Bright in 29:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spiritphoenix
Miranasheep
Death ProphetIrving
AbaddonUndyne_
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Bright · 53%
Series resultTeam Bright 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2