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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Северная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
TSMwin 2:0
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
5RATFORCESTAFFloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TSM

Rubick
Rubick
Ari · 12 games
58%
Riki
Rikioften banned
Ari · 9 games
44%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
bryle- · 9 games
44%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Whitemon · 9 games
44%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
kasane · 8 games
25%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
bryle- · 8 games
25%
Lycan
Lycansignature
kasane · 8 games
88%
Marci
Marcisignature
Timado · 8 games
63%

5RATFORCESTAFF

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
albinozebra · 28 games
61%
Rubick
Rubick
CTOMAHEH1 · 18 games
39%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
dnm · 15 games
60%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
albinozebra · 14 games
71%
Silencer
Silencer
albinozebra · 13 games
38%
Broodmother
Broodmothersignature
Speeed · 12 games
75%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Speeed · 11 games
73%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
albinozebra · 11 games
45%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
779 picks · 513 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
553 picks · 397 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
541 picks · 444 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
533 picks · 573 bans
56%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
421 picks · 663 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
400 picks · 287 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
387 picks · 725 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
365 picks · 793 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 43%
Hero pool strength51% 5RATFORCESTAFF
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total68% TSM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:27
TSM 61%5RATFORCESTAFF 39%
The model gave 61% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 45:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingTimado
52% · 256 games45% · 133 games
Shadow Fienddnm
Shadow Fiend
Leshrac
Leshracbryle-
55% · 313 games43% · 310 games
Pangolierred2
Pangolier
Enigma
Enigmakasane
50% · 283 games49% · 144 games
TimbersawSpeeed
Timbersaw
Io
IoWhitemon
54% · 169 games48% · 489 games
TinyMoOz
Tiny
Monkey King
Monkey KingAri
50% · 288 games53% · 233 games
UndyingGiant
Undying
Game 2prediction correct32:10
TSM 60%5RATFORCESTAFF 40%
The model gave 60% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 26:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
Leshracbryle-
58% · 328 games49% · 141 game
Morphlingdnm
Morphling
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageTimado
61% · 38 games50% · 154 games
Primal BeastSpeeed
Primal Beast
Tidehunter
Tidehunterkasane
47% · 155 games47% · 266 games
Pangolierred2
Pangolier
Rubick
RubickAri
49% · 660 games45% · 488 games
TinyMoOz
Tiny
Io
IoWhitemon
58% · 181 game40% · 313 games
SnapfireGiant
Snapfire
Model check result
Model favoriteTSM · 68%
Series resultTSM 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2