Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Северная Америка. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionMmonopolyloss 0:1
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 0:1
VAVillain Arcwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
monopoly
No games played over 6 months.
Villain Arc
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
779 picks · 513 bans
Tiny
553 picks · 397 bans
Tusk
541 picks · 444 bans
Treant Protector
533 picks · 573 bans
Nature's Prophet
421 picks · 663 bans
Snapfire
400 picks · 287 bans
Death Prophet
387 picks · 725 bans
Ember Spirit
365 picks · 793 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% monopoly
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% monopoly
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
monopoly 62%Villain Arc 38%
The model gave 62% on monopoly — the game was taken by Villain Arc.
Model check result
Model favoritemonopoly · 62%
Series resultVillain Arc 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1