Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Северная Америка. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
GRIN esportsloss 1:2series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Sand King Gomezwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
GRIN esports
No games played over 6 months.
Sand King Gomez
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
779 picks · 513 bans
Tiny
553 picks · 397 bans
Tusk
541 picks · 444 bans
Treant Protector
533 picks · 573 bans
Nature's Prophet
421 picks · 663 bans
Snapfire
400 picks · 287 bans
Death Prophet
387 picks · 725 bans
Ember Spirit
365 picks · 793 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 40%
Hero pool strength50% GRIN esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Sand King Gomez
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:27
GRIN esports 42%Sand King Gomez 58%
The model gave 58% on Sand King Gomez — the game was taken by GRIN esports in 38:12.
Game 2prediction correct37:38
GRIN esports 42%Sand King Gomez 58%
The model gave 58% on Sand King Gomez — the game was taken by Sand King Gomez in 57:30.
Game 3prediction correct42:22
GRIN esports 42%Sand King Gomez 58%
The model gave 58% on Sand King Gomez — the game was taken by Sand King Gomez in 42:09.
Model check result
Model favoriteSand King Gomez · 58%
Series resultSand King Gomez 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3